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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Reaper Game Store - Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1360
· median 1360
· range 1142–1578
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1129
Q1 1251
Q3 1411
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Wind Arisanna | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
